Mark Arnold: Views from the edge...

Sunday, March 3, 2013

Hope Springs Eternal: Mariners Have Something Brewing in Peoria…by Mark Arnold

ope, as they say, springs eternal. For Seattle Mariner fans over the last decade or so, spring has been the time of year when we could revel in the fact that we weren’t 12 or 13 games out of first and out of the race by June. In mid March our dreams of a ’95 like run down the stretch to the AL West pennant and playoff baseball have not yet been shattered by reality. (I can’t believe that I am saying this, but for those of you too young to recall, the 1995 Mariners, the team that had Ken Griffey Jr., Edgar Martinez, Randy Johnson and Jay Buhner, made a thrilling mad dash to the AL West pennant coming from 13 games back at the beginning of August to defeat the Angels in a 1 game playoff and then the Yankees in a first round playoff series. That ‘95 team and season saved baseball in Seattle.) But, don’t look now Mariner fans, if the team’s early Cactus League results mean anything, this could be the season we start to shed the last decade’s worth of failed hope.

Ken Griffey Jr.

Yes…to this reporter it looks as if the Mariners definitely have something brewing down in Peoria. As of yesterday’s games they have won 8 straight and the highlight has been, unwontedly, the offense. For a team with the worst plate skills in baseball over the last 3 seasons this is definitely a good sign. Through 9 spring games thus far the Mariners have bashed 20 home runs while making nothing of opposing pitching in the process. They are scoring runs in bunches and are winning games. They currently have something like 16 players hitting .300 or better so far this spring (11 are better than .400). Justin Smoak, Jason Bay and Franklin Gutierrez particularly have all looked good and Bay is showing signs of returning to the form that made him a National League All Star several season ago. He seems to have a good idea at the plate, isn’t swinging at bad pitches and leads the team in walks, on base percentage and “on base plus slugging” percentage through these first 9 games. Overall it has been an impressive start to the spring for the Seattle Mariners.

Justin Smoak

Of course the pessimist in me points out that Major League history is littered with teams that had great springs that then went hollow when the regular season started. Such facts reinforce that something about the mind that wallows in the negative and tugs at our hope to bring it down. Contrasting this, however, is the fact that every now and then the miraculous manifests, like it did for the Mariners in ’95. For me as a Mariner fan, those are the moments I choose to put my attention on.Those are the moments that give me hope.

And hope, after all, does spring eternal…doesn’t it? Go M’s!

By Mark Arnold

Sunday, February 10, 2013

A Far Cry from Randy Johnson—Felix Hernandez Will Stay a Seattle Mariner…by Mark Arnold

Seattle Mariner fans…who remembers the 1998 season, Randy Johnson’s last season as a Mariner? Well, technically it was only two thirds of a season; the Mariners traded Randy at the deadline to the Houston Astros because he was going to be a free agent the next year and they weren’t going to be able to re-sign him. Do you remember that? Do you remember Randy saying the Mariners didn’t respect him because they didn’t make him a competitive offer? Do you also remember that for the first half of the 1998 season before he was traded Randy had 9 wins and 10 losses for the Mariners with an ERA north of 4.0, numbers decidedly un-Randy like, and that after he was traded to the Astros he went 10-1 for them down the stretch with an ERA just over 1.0 while helping them to the playoffs? Does anyone besides me remember all that?

I sure do. The whole scene just really pissed me off. I was upset at the Mariners for their inability to communicate with and keep the man who was becoming arguably the best pitcher in baseball. And I was upset with Randy for basically tanking the first half of the season with the Mariners, a fact that was proved by his performance for the Astros in the second half. It is observable that a person usually reserves their largest upsets in life for those they liked and admired the most; the magnitude of the upset matches the magnitude of the affinity broken; and I really liked and admired Randy Johnson. Notwithstanding the tendency of people to always claim they were at historic events even when they weren’t, I really was at Randy’s historic no-hitter against the Tigers in 1990, the first no hitter in Seattle Mariner history. His last strike out to end that game is indelibly inscribed in my memory.

Randy Johnson

And who can forget his magnificent performance in the Mariners magical run of 1995 and his heroism in coming out of the bullpen in the final game of the playoff series against the Yankees that year after he had started and won game 3 two days earlier?

Who can forget these things? I sure can’t, and that is why I am glad that the Mariners this time have stepped up and signed their ace Felix Hernandez to a contract extension guaranteeing he will be a Mariner for the next 7 years. I am not even going to talk about money in this article. Who cares? What I care about is that I can go to The Safe (Safeco Field) or flip on the TV and watch one of the best pitchers in baseball, a man who before it is all through may become one of the best ever in the history of the game, pitching for my team, the Seattle Mariners. If Jackie Z (Mariner GM Jack Zduriencik) succeeds in putting an offense around him, with this signing we already have our pitching ace in place, a definite requisite to making it to the playoffs and World Series.

Jack Zdurinciek

And make no mistake, Hernandez is an ace. Over the last 4 seasons he has been at or near the top of all Major League pitchers in strikeouts, innings pitched and Earned Run Average and at 26 years old has already garnered one Cy Young Award and 4 All Star appearances. Last season he led all of baseball with 5 shutouts. He has never been seriously injured and is just coming into his prime. His stuff on a normal day is electric and on a good day is unhittable, as the Tampa Rays experienced last year when Felix mesmerized them at Safeco Field with a perfect game, the third no hitter and first perfect game in Mariner history. Rays hitter Elliot Johnson describes what it was like trying to hit Felix that day: “…they all look like fastballs out if his hand, but it winds up being a breaking ball, or that split-finger looking change-up—whatever that thing is.” Elliot Johnson, as you can see, was utterly baffled by Felix’s mastery, as were all the Rays that day.

But there is one other reason I am glad for this signing. When news of Felix and the Mariners reaching agreement on this deal was announced, I heard that several eastern baseball analysts, I don’t even know who, commented that it was bad for baseball for Felix to stay in Seattle. The reason, they said, was that the Mariners sucked and Felix would never get the chance to be in the playoffs on a national stage or get to be seen by the rest of the country at large. Great players, they said, need to play in places where the whole country can appreciate them, and that just does not and will not happen in this far, ‘off the beaten track’, Northwest outpost called Seattle. That is what I heard that they said.

Felix Hernandez

Well you know what I think? I think these eastern “anal-ysts” can take their biased and invalidating baseball views of Seattle and stick ‘em deep where the sun don’t shine, if you take my meaning. What are we supposed to do? Sit here in Seattle keeping our best players for 5 or 6 years and then turn them over to the Yankees, Red Sox or Angels so they can go to a World Series with someone else? Screw that! We are trying to win a World Series here for God sakes! It can be done and this Felix signing shows a real intention by the M’s to do it and for that reason I applaud it…loudly!

In closing, I want you all to know that I have forgiven Randy for his dumping of us fans and the Mariners during the ’98 season. I have had a harder time with Mariner management, but I am dealing with it. But I am really glad that I will not have to go through all of that upset again with Felix Hernandez. Now…let’s get on with it and win a World Series. Wouldn’t that be something?!

By Mark Arnold

Wednesday, January 23, 2013

Mariners Trade of Jaso for Morse Paves Fast Track to Bigs for Mike Zunino …by Mark Arnold

ast week the Mariners in a 3 way deal traded catcher John Jaso to conference rival Oakland and in return got Washington Nationals outfielder Mike Morse. You may recall Morse. He came up to the Majors with the Mariners who then traded him to the Nationals in 2009. I remember seeing him at the “Safe” (Safeco Field) in a game in 2005 in which he hit a long home run. He seemed to me to have a good sense of himself at the plate.

On first hearing of the trade I did not like it. Though playing only part time last season Jaso led the Mariners in on base percentage and in batting average. He came up with a number of clutch hits, was a great pinch hitter and I loved his approach at the plate. He is just the kind of player Oakland GM Billy Beane goes for…a guy who gets on base. Then I went and checked out Morse’s stats with the Nationals. After doing that I did not feel so bad. Morse had a monster season in 2011 with 31 home runs and 95 RBIs while hitting .303 with a .360 OBP. Last year he played through an injury most of the season and still hit .291 with 18 homers. Morse says he is healthy now and if so another 30 homer season could be in the offing. The Mariners could sure use that.

There is, however, another aspect to this trade which I think may be the real reason that Jackie Z (Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik) pulled the trigger on this deal. Jaso is a catcher. The Mariners also have a young player on their roster named Jesus Montero who is also a catcher and who has the potential to be a great right handed hitter. He showed signs of this last year at the ripe old age of 22. As good as Montero potentially can be though, he is not the catcher of the future for the Mariners. That title belongs to the Mariners’ first round draft pick in last season’s draft, catcher Mike Zunino, who won the Golden Spikes Award as the nation’s top amateur player in 2012 while leading the Florida Gators to the College World Series for the third season in a row. Zunino completed his college career at Florida and signed with the Mariners rapidly which allowed him to get some playing time in the Mariners farm system last season. He tore up opposing pitching in his stint with the Everett Aquasox hitting .373 with 10 homers and an outstanding .474 OBP in 110 at bats. He did nearly as well with the Mariners AA Jackson affiliate hitting .333 with 3 homers and a .386 OBP in 51 at bats. Zunino is also reportedly an excellent catcher who can handle pitchers.

Though he does not have much professional experience, it is very possible that Zunino is Major League ready now. Spring training will tell the tale. If he does not make the roster out of spring expect him to be called up by mid season with the Mariners bringing some other catcher in temporarily until Zunino is ready. But I have a feeling he will come north with the Mariners after spring training. With his power, average and high OBP Zunino will be a major upgrade for the Mariners at catcher and very likely a future star. Since the Mariners are not going to trade Montero, who is also a budding star, the only other option is trading Jaso, a move which paves the way for Mike Zunino to complete his fast track to the Bigs and also provides some instant offense in the return of Mike Morse.

After thinking this Jaso for Morse trade all the way through…I kind of like it now.

By Mark Arnold

Sunday, January 20, 2013

Remembering Stan “The Man” Musial….by Mark Arnold

arlier today I heard that Stan Musial, the all time great St. Louis Cardinal outfielder and hitter, passed away at the age of 92. As a kid growing up it was my privilege to be able follow the great players of the ‘50s and early ‘60s. It was, in my mind, a golden age of baseball. Willie Mays, Hank Aaron, Ted Williams, Frank Robinson, Eddie Mathews and Mickey Mantle were the players I cut my teeth on; and you can add to that number Stan Musial, who was as good as any of them and maybe in some ways better.

Musial’s hitting statistics attest to his greatness; they are nothing short of eye popping. He played for the Cardinals for 22 seasons (1941 to 1963) and compiled a career batting average of .331 and an on base percentage of .417. He had 3,630 hits, 1951 RBIs, smashed 475 home runs and was a National League All Star an unbelievable 20 times! On top of all that he won the NL batting title 7 times and was the NL MVP 3 times! It didn’t matter what park he played in either; he was great everywhere, compiling exactly half of his career hits (1815) on the road and the other 1815 at home. Unquestionably Stan Musial was one of the greatest hitters who ever lived. Those of us who got to see him play will never forget him and for those who did not his Hall of Fame career and statistics will forever speak for themselves.

So…Good Bye Stan “The Man” Musial! We thank you for your greatness and the inspiration it provided as well as the standard it set for the many players who followed and who continue to follow in your footsteps.

By Mark Arnold

Saturday, January 19, 2013

Edgar Martinez Deserves the Hall of Fame….by Mark Arnold

couple weeks ago in their annual vote the “Baseball Writers Association of America” failed to vote any of those eligible on this year’s ballot into the Hall of Fame. One of those not voted in this year was our own Edgar Martinez, who for many years as a Seattle Mariner set the standard for designated hitters in the American League. It requires a 75% approval from the baseball writers who vote to get into the Hall. In Edgar’s first year of Hall eligibility (2010) he got 36% of the vote. In 2011 it went down to 33% and in 2012 rose to 36.5%. The vote just concluded wound up just under 36%, less than half the total he needs to be elected. For some reason the writers don’t seem willing to give Edgar his due. So I thought I would take a quick statistical look at Edgar relative to other Hall of Famers, just to get an idea of what these writers might be looking at. The results are illuminating.

Edgar Martinez had an 18 year Major League career, the bulk of it as DH (designated hitter) for the Seattle Mariners. Across the 18 seasons Edgar hit for a .312 batting average, had a career on base percentage (OBP) of .418, had 2247 hits, 309 home runs and 1,261 runs batted in (RBI). He also registered 2 American League batting titles (1992 and 1995). I checked Edgar’s stats against a random sampling of 9 other players already elected to the Hall of Fame. The players were Luis Aparicio, Richie Ashburn, Luke Appling, Roy Campanella, Tony Perez, Carlton Fisk, Lou Boudreau, Yogi Berra and Barry Larkin. You might be surprised when I tell you that Edgar’s career batting average AND career OBP are better than ANY of these already elected Hall of Famers. In addition Edgar has more hits than Berra, Campanella and Boudreau, more RBIs than Larkin, Boudreau, Appling, Ashburn, Campanella and Aparicio and more home runs than Aparicio, Ashburn, Appling, Campanella, Boudreau and Larkin. By hitting comparison alone with these already elected Hall of Famers, Edgar belongs in the Hall. Add to this that Edgar is widely recognized as the best Designated Hitter of his era, a fact even acknowledged by the American League (the National League does not employ the DH) by naming the annual award for the best DH the “Edgar Martinez Award”.

Since Edgar obviously has the hitting stats to qualify for the Hall it is reasonable to assume that the writers must be looking at something else in denying him entrance. We can eliminate steroids and performance enhancing drugs as a factor in the writers’ evaluation. Unlike others of his era (i.e. Rafael Palmiero, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens etc) there has never been a hint of a scandal with Edgar regarding the use of these substances. The guy was/is clean as a whistle. That really leaves only one thing that the writers could be looking at and that is the fact that Edgar was a DH the bulk of his career and therefore not also a position player on defense. All of the other players I mentioned above who are already in the Hall played defensive positions as well as offense. For some reason the writers seem to be holding this against Edgar.

They shouldn’t and here is why:

The DH has existed as a valid position on American League teams since 1973. This is by rule. Since it is a valid position why should the DH be considered as less Hall eligible than…say…a closer who comes in only to pitch the 9^th inning? Several of these, like Dennis Eckersly and Rollie Fingers, are already in the Hall. The game of baseball has changed much over the last 50 years and is today increasingly a game of specialization. Today we have not only closers to pitch the 9^thinning but both right handed and left handed set up men whose whole job is to face one or two hitters in the late innings of a tight game. Today’s game is a game of specialization and the simple fact is that Edgar Martinez performed his specialized hat of DH better than anyone else ever has in the history of the game. Based on that alone he belongs in the Hall of Fame.

So…come on Baseball Writers Association…it’s not 1950 anymore! Wake up, come to present time and acknowledge the man who was the best ever at his position in the game by voting Edgar Martinez into the Hall of Fame. He deserves it!

By Mark Arnold

Sunday, January 13, 2013

Wow! What a Game...Thrilling Wilson Led Seahawk Comeback Falls Just Short...by Mark Arnold

Wow! What a game! You can watch football for a longtime and not see again what you saw today.

This was a game that lends itself to "What Ifs...?"

What if the Seahawks got even a field goal out of their red zone trips in the first half?

What if the Seahawks got any kind of pass rush at all? No sacks on Ryan and Bruce Irvin a complete non factor. Was he even in the game?

What if Chris Clemons (Hawks top pass rusher) does not tear up his knee on that terrible excuse for a field in last week's game against Washington?

What if the Seahawks played that final Falcon drive with a tight man to man defense in the secondary instead of a soft "bend but don't break" zone?

What if Pete Carroll doesn't call that ill advised time out to try and ice the Falcon kicker at the end of the game? (You will recall his first kick was wide right.)

With a little more thought I could come up with a thousand more "what ifs...?" We all could. But as Seahawk fans don't let that overshadow or diminish what you saw transpire today on the artificial turf in Atlanta, Georgia... and that is one of the great comebacks in NFL post season history. To be down by 20 with less than 3 minutes to go in the 3rd quarter and to come back and actually take the lead with 35 seconds left, on the road in a hostile stadium...was one of the most thrilling things I have witnessed on a football field in a long time.

And what can you say about Russell Wilson? His performance was something to behold. The sheer will to win combined with the athleticism and skill to translate that will to effective action on the field...it was absolutely aesthetic and as good as any of the greats I have ever seen...and I have seen almost all of them.

All that said, there is something I learned in sports a long time ago...the team that should have won did...and that team was the Atlanta Falcons. All those "What ifs...?" cut both ways and today there were just a few less of them for the Falcons than the Hawks. But keep your chin up Hawk fans. What you have seen this season is just the beginning of a ride that within a year or two will have us in the Super Bowl.

And congratulations to the Atlanta Falcons. Good luck on the upcoming NFC championship game against the 49ers. From the way the 9ers dismantled the Packers in their playoff game yesterday the Falcons will need all the luck they can get.

By Mark Arnold

Kendrys Morales Will Help the Mariners…by Mark Arnold

n a recent article I took the Mariners to task for having a weak winter as far as acquisitions to improve the team. (Please see my blog of 29 December, 2012 “Why Bringing in the Fences and a New Score Board Won’t Fix the Mariner’s Offense…One Fan’s Protest”) While I still feel that way generally, I was remiss in not acknowledging that the Mariners’ prime off season acquisition so far, designated hitter/first baseman Kendrys Morales, is a player who will help the team. The Mariners acquired Morales from the Angels last month in a straight up deal for southpaw pitcher Jason Vargas.

Though Vargas was coming off his best season ever as a starter with 14 victories and a career low in E.R.A, one look at Morales hitting stats shows why this was a deal Mariner GM Jack Zduriencik had to make. Last season for the Angels Morales hit .273 with 22 home runs, 73 RBIs and a .320 on base percentage in 522 plate appearances. Among Mariner players with 250 at bats or more last year, with those stats Morales would have been number 1 in home runs and number 2 in batting average, RBIs and on base percentage. As good as those stats are, I think Jackie Z is expecting that Morales is on the verge of returning to his 2009 form when he it .306 with 34 home runs, 108 RBIs and a .355 on base percentage; figures that if repeated would make the switch hitting Morales one of the top power hitting first basemen in baseball. (Morales missed most of the 2010 season and all of 2011 with a severely broken leg.) If Morales just repeats last season’s production he will improve the Mariner offense; if he comes close to his 2009 levels it will make the Vargas trade an unqualified success regardless of what Jason does with LA.

An added bonus to the trade is that it gives the Mariners viable first base options which open the door to either trading Justin Smoak or giving him more time to develop in the minors. Going into the 2013 season hoping once again that Smoak will start to fulfill his potential is now a mistake that the Mariners will not be making.

I, for one, am glad of that!

If I am critical of the Mariners for not being pro active enough to help the team this off season, then I should be man enough to acknowledge them when they do something right. This trade is a good one for the Mariners. Kendrys Morales will help this team.

By Mark Arnold