Mark Arnold: Views from the edge...: January 2013

Wednesday, January 23, 2013

Mariners Trade of Jaso for Morse Paves Fast Track to Bigs for Mike Zunino …by Mark Arnold

ast week the Mariners in a 3 way deal traded catcher John Jaso to conference rival Oakland and in return got Washington Nationals outfielder Mike Morse. You may recall Morse. He came up to the Majors with the Mariners who then traded him to the Nationals in 2009. I remember seeing him at the “Safe” (Safeco Field) in a game in 2005 in which he hit a long home run. He seemed to me to have a good sense of himself at the plate.

On first hearing of the trade I did not like it. Though playing only part time last season Jaso led the Mariners in on base percentage and in batting average. He came up with a number of clutch hits, was a great pinch hitter and I loved his approach at the plate. He is just the kind of player Oakland GM Billy Beane goes for…a guy who gets on base. Then I went and checked out Morse’s stats with the Nationals. After doing that I did not feel so bad. Morse had a monster season in 2011 with 31 home runs and 95 RBIs while hitting .303 with a .360 OBP. Last year he played through an injury most of the season and still hit .291 with 18 homers. Morse says he is healthy now and if so another 30 homer season could be in the offing. The Mariners could sure use that.

There is, however, another aspect to this trade which I think may be the real reason that Jackie Z (Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik) pulled the trigger on this deal. Jaso is a catcher. The Mariners also have a young player on their roster named Jesus Montero who is also a catcher and who has the potential to be a great right handed hitter. He showed signs of this last year at the ripe old age of 22. As good as Montero potentially can be though, he is not the catcher of the future for the Mariners. That title belongs to the Mariners’ first round draft pick in last season’s draft, catcher Mike Zunino, who won the Golden Spikes Award as the nation’s top amateur player in 2012 while leading the Florida Gators to the College World Series for the third season in a row. Zunino completed his college career at Florida and signed with the Mariners rapidly which allowed him to get some playing time in the Mariners farm system last season. He tore up opposing pitching in his stint with the Everett Aquasox hitting .373 with 10 homers and an outstanding .474 OBP in 110 at bats. He did nearly as well with the Mariners AA Jackson affiliate hitting .333 with 3 homers and a .386 OBP in 51 at bats. Zunino is also reportedly an excellent catcher who can handle pitchers.

Though he does not have much professional experience, it is very possible that Zunino is Major League ready now. Spring training will tell the tale. If he does not make the roster out of spring expect him to be called up by mid season with the Mariners bringing some other catcher in temporarily until Zunino is ready. But I have a feeling he will come north with the Mariners after spring training. With his power, average and high OBP Zunino will be a major upgrade for the Mariners at catcher and very likely a future star. Since the Mariners are not going to trade Montero, who is also a budding star, the only other option is trading Jaso, a move which paves the way for Mike Zunino to complete his fast track to the Bigs and also provides some instant offense in the return of Mike Morse.

After thinking this Jaso for Morse trade all the way through…I kind of like it now.

By Mark Arnold

Sunday, January 20, 2013

Remembering Stan “The Man” Musial….by Mark Arnold

arlier today I heard that Stan Musial, the all time great St. Louis Cardinal outfielder and hitter, passed away at the age of 92. As a kid growing up it was my privilege to be able follow the great players of the ‘50s and early ‘60s. It was, in my mind, a golden age of baseball. Willie Mays, Hank Aaron, Ted Williams, Frank Robinson, Eddie Mathews and Mickey Mantle were the players I cut my teeth on; and you can add to that number Stan Musial, who was as good as any of them and maybe in some ways better.

Musial’s hitting statistics attest to his greatness; they are nothing short of eye popping. He played for the Cardinals for 22 seasons (1941 to 1963) and compiled a career batting average of .331 and an on base percentage of .417. He had 3,630 hits, 1951 RBIs, smashed 475 home runs and was a National League All Star an unbelievable 20 times! On top of all that he won the NL batting title 7 times and was the NL MVP 3 times! It didn’t matter what park he played in either; he was great everywhere, compiling exactly half of his career hits (1815) on the road and the other 1815 at home. Unquestionably Stan Musial was one of the greatest hitters who ever lived. Those of us who got to see him play will never forget him and for those who did not his Hall of Fame career and statistics will forever speak for themselves.

So…Good Bye Stan “The Man” Musial! We thank you for your greatness and the inspiration it provided as well as the standard it set for the many players who followed and who continue to follow in your footsteps.

By Mark Arnold

Saturday, January 19, 2013

Edgar Martinez Deserves the Hall of Fame….by Mark Arnold

couple weeks ago in their annual vote the “Baseball Writers Association of America” failed to vote any of those eligible on this year’s ballot into the Hall of Fame. One of those not voted in this year was our own Edgar Martinez, who for many years as a Seattle Mariner set the standard for designated hitters in the American League. It requires a 75% approval from the baseball writers who vote to get into the Hall. In Edgar’s first year of Hall eligibility (2010) he got 36% of the vote. In 2011 it went down to 33% and in 2012 rose to 36.5%. The vote just concluded wound up just under 36%, less than half the total he needs to be elected. For some reason the writers don’t seem willing to give Edgar his due. So I thought I would take a quick statistical look at Edgar relative to other Hall of Famers, just to get an idea of what these writers might be looking at. The results are illuminating.

Edgar Martinez had an 18 year Major League career, the bulk of it as DH (designated hitter) for the Seattle Mariners. Across the 18 seasons Edgar hit for a .312 batting average, had a career on base percentage (OBP) of .418, had 2247 hits, 309 home runs and 1,261 runs batted in (RBI). He also registered 2 American League batting titles (1992 and 1995). I checked Edgar’s stats against a random sampling of 9 other players already elected to the Hall of Fame. The players were Luis Aparicio, Richie Ashburn, Luke Appling, Roy Campanella, Tony Perez, Carlton Fisk, Lou Boudreau, Yogi Berra and Barry Larkin. You might be surprised when I tell you that Edgar’s career batting average AND career OBP are better than ANY of these already elected Hall of Famers. In addition Edgar has more hits than Berra, Campanella and Boudreau, more RBIs than Larkin, Boudreau, Appling, Ashburn, Campanella and Aparicio and more home runs than Aparicio, Ashburn, Appling, Campanella, Boudreau and Larkin. By hitting comparison alone with these already elected Hall of Famers, Edgar belongs in the Hall. Add to this that Edgar is widely recognized as the best Designated Hitter of his era, a fact even acknowledged by the American League (the National League does not employ the DH) by naming the annual award for the best DH the “Edgar Martinez Award”.

Since Edgar obviously has the hitting stats to qualify for the Hall it is reasonable to assume that the writers must be looking at something else in denying him entrance. We can eliminate steroids and performance enhancing drugs as a factor in the writers’ evaluation. Unlike others of his era (i.e. Rafael Palmiero, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens etc) there has never been a hint of a scandal with Edgar regarding the use of these substances. The guy was/is clean as a whistle. That really leaves only one thing that the writers could be looking at and that is the fact that Edgar was a DH the bulk of his career and therefore not also a position player on defense. All of the other players I mentioned above who are already in the Hall played defensive positions as well as offense. For some reason the writers seem to be holding this against Edgar.

They shouldn’t and here is why:

The DH has existed as a valid position on American League teams since 1973. This is by rule. Since it is a valid position why should the DH be considered as less Hall eligible than…say…a closer who comes in only to pitch the 9^th inning? Several of these, like Dennis Eckersly and Rollie Fingers, are already in the Hall. The game of baseball has changed much over the last 50 years and is today increasingly a game of specialization. Today we have not only closers to pitch the 9^thinning but both right handed and left handed set up men whose whole job is to face one or two hitters in the late innings of a tight game. Today’s game is a game of specialization and the simple fact is that Edgar Martinez performed his specialized hat of DH better than anyone else ever has in the history of the game. Based on that alone he belongs in the Hall of Fame.

So…come on Baseball Writers Association…it’s not 1950 anymore! Wake up, come to present time and acknowledge the man who was the best ever at his position in the game by voting Edgar Martinez into the Hall of Fame. He deserves it!

By Mark Arnold

Sunday, January 13, 2013

Wow! What a Game...Thrilling Wilson Led Seahawk Comeback Falls Just Short...by Mark Arnold

Wow! What a game! You can watch football for a longtime and not see again what you saw today.

This was a game that lends itself to "What Ifs...?"

What if the Seahawks got even a field goal out of their red zone trips in the first half?

What if the Seahawks got any kind of pass rush at all? No sacks on Ryan and Bruce Irvin a complete non factor. Was he even in the game?

What if Chris Clemons (Hawks top pass rusher) does not tear up his knee on that terrible excuse for a field in last week's game against Washington?

What if the Seahawks played that final Falcon drive with a tight man to man defense in the secondary instead of a soft "bend but don't break" zone?

What if Pete Carroll doesn't call that ill advised time out to try and ice the Falcon kicker at the end of the game? (You will recall his first kick was wide right.)

With a little more thought I could come up with a thousand more "what ifs...?" We all could. But as Seahawk fans don't let that overshadow or diminish what you saw transpire today on the artificial turf in Atlanta, Georgia... and that is one of the great comebacks in NFL post season history. To be down by 20 with less than 3 minutes to go in the 3rd quarter and to come back and actually take the lead with 35 seconds left, on the road in a hostile stadium...was one of the most thrilling things I have witnessed on a football field in a long time.

And what can you say about Russell Wilson? His performance was something to behold. The sheer will to win combined with the athleticism and skill to translate that will to effective action on the field...it was absolutely aesthetic and as good as any of the greats I have ever seen...and I have seen almost all of them.

All that said, there is something I learned in sports a long time ago...the team that should have won did...and that team was the Atlanta Falcons. All those "What ifs...?" cut both ways and today there were just a few less of them for the Falcons than the Hawks. But keep your chin up Hawk fans. What you have seen this season is just the beginning of a ride that within a year or two will have us in the Super Bowl.

And congratulations to the Atlanta Falcons. Good luck on the upcoming NFC championship game against the 49ers. From the way the 9ers dismantled the Packers in their playoff game yesterday the Falcons will need all the luck they can get.

By Mark Arnold

Kendrys Morales Will Help the Mariners…by Mark Arnold

n a recent article I took the Mariners to task for having a weak winter as far as acquisitions to improve the team. (Please see my blog of 29 December, 2012 “Why Bringing in the Fences and a New Score Board Won’t Fix the Mariner’s Offense…One Fan’s Protest”) While I still feel that way generally, I was remiss in not acknowledging that the Mariners’ prime off season acquisition so far, designated hitter/first baseman Kendrys Morales, is a player who will help the team. The Mariners acquired Morales from the Angels last month in a straight up deal for southpaw pitcher Jason Vargas.

Though Vargas was coming off his best season ever as a starter with 14 victories and a career low in E.R.A, one look at Morales hitting stats shows why this was a deal Mariner GM Jack Zduriencik had to make. Last season for the Angels Morales hit .273 with 22 home runs, 73 RBIs and a .320 on base percentage in 522 plate appearances. Among Mariner players with 250 at bats or more last year, with those stats Morales would have been number 1 in home runs and number 2 in batting average, RBIs and on base percentage. As good as those stats are, I think Jackie Z is expecting that Morales is on the verge of returning to his 2009 form when he it .306 with 34 home runs, 108 RBIs and a .355 on base percentage; figures that if repeated would make the switch hitting Morales one of the top power hitting first basemen in baseball. (Morales missed most of the 2010 season and all of 2011 with a severely broken leg.) If Morales just repeats last season’s production he will improve the Mariner offense; if he comes close to his 2009 levels it will make the Vargas trade an unqualified success regardless of what Jason does with LA.

An added bonus to the trade is that it gives the Mariners viable first base options which open the door to either trading Justin Smoak or giving him more time to develop in the minors. Going into the 2013 season hoping once again that Smoak will start to fulfill his potential is now a mistake that the Mariners will not be making.

I, for one, am glad of that!

If I am critical of the Mariners for not being pro active enough to help the team this off season, then I should be man enough to acknowledge them when they do something right. This trade is a good one for the Mariners. Kendrys Morales will help this team.

By Mark Arnold

Friday, January 11, 2013

Seahawks Will Continue Their Playoff Magic This Week vs. Falcons and Here’s Why….by Mark Arnold

hen it comes to the Seattle Seahawks…I admit it…I’m a homer. Anything that you read in this blog should be taken in light of that fact, so don’t go and bet the grocery money on the Hawks because of what I say here. Plus, on the face of it things don’t look so good for our home town team. In the Atlanta Falcons we are facing the number one seeded team in the NFC bracket of these NFL playoffs. They finished the regular season with a conference best 13-3 record and were nearly perfect at home with 7 wins against 1 loss. Then consider that all 5 of the Seahawk losses came on the road this year and also throw in the fact that we once again must travel 3000 miles to the east coast for a 10 AM Pacific Time Sunday morning start.

On top of that take a look at Falcon quarterback Matt Ryan’s stats for the season and those of his receivers and you start to grasp the challenge facing the Seahawks this weekend. Ryan, in his 5^th season as a pro, completed nearly 69% of his passes (422 out of 615) for a staggering 4700 yards (1500 more than Seahawk QB Russell Wilson threw for) and 32 touchdowns (6 more than Wilson). The top 3 Falcon receivers were wide outs Roddy White and Julio Jones and tight end Tony Gonzalez. White and Jones caught 92 and 79 balls for 1351 and 1198 yards respectively while Gonzalez (possibly the greatest tight end in NFL history) hauled in 93 balls for 930 yards. By comparison the top two Seahawk receivers, Sydney Rice and Golden Tate caught 50 and 45 for 748 and 688 yards respectively. Based on these stats and the fact the game is in Atlanta you can now see why the Falcons are favored. Indeed, on the face of it, the game looks like a mismatch.

But, as I said, that is only on the face of it. Take a deeper look at ALL the stats and some other pertinent facts and you can start to see just how it is that the Seahawks could win this game. In fact…I think that it is very likely the Seahawks will win this game. My reasons are as follows:

1. Matt Ryan is 0-3 as the Falcon starting QB in the playoffs. This will be his 4^th playoff start and he has yet to lead the Falcons to even one victory, let alone the Super Bowl. Because of this there is a great deal of pressure on him to win whereas Seattle’s Wilson is playing with “house money” so to speak. Expect Ryan and the Falcon team to be tight because of this. In addition, as I pointed out last week, the Seahawks have overcome their road allergies, winning their last 3 straight away from the friendly confines of “The Clink” (Century Link Stadium) and the 12^th man, including last week’s first round playoff game against the Redskins.

2. The Seahawks compiled their 11-5 regular season record against a much tougher schedule than that played by the Falcons, who actually played the NFL’s easiest schedule this season. The Seahawks have beaten 7 teams with winning records this year while Atlanta only 2. In addition Ryan was inexplicably statistically worse at home this year than he was on the road throwing for 2600 yards on the road and 21 TDs while only 2100 yds and 11 TDs at home.

3. The Falcons strength on offense is their passing game, as can be seen from the stats above. The Seahawks strength on defense is defending the pass. Seattle has the 6^th ranked pass defense in the NFL and their 2 big corners Brandon Browner and Richard Sherman could potentially nullify the Falcons two productive wide receivers (White and Jones) with their physical play. In addition the Hawks have done a great job this season defending tight ends (Cam Chancellor’s devastating hit on 49er tight end Vernon Davis comes to mind) giving up only 3 touchdowns, second fewest in the league, potentially offsetting the impact of Gonzales.

4. On the other hand, the Seahawks strength on offense is their running game. Marshawn Lynch rushed for nearly 1600 yards this season, nearly twice the total of the Falcon’s top rusher Michael Turner. The Hawks as a team out rushed the Falcons 2579 yards to 1397. In addition rushing defense is a weakness of the Falcons, finishing 21^st in the 32 team NFL against the run. Thus the Hawk rushing strength is matched against the Falcon weakness. The Hawks hung nearly 200 rushing yards on the league’s number 5 rushing defense last week in the Redskins. It will be worse this week for the Falcons.

So…what’s it all mean? The Seahawks will control this game with their running attack, feeding “the beast” (Lynch) augmented by Wilson “read option” runs and play action passes, while grinding out long, time consuming drives, thus keeping the ball away from Ryan and the high powered Falcons offense. When the Falcons do have the ball expect them to move it with their passing attack but offset to some degree by the Seahawk “legion of boom” and their hard hitting, ball hawking ways. I expect the Hawks to intercept Ryan at least twice as the Falcons will be rendered one dimensional and will be forced to take chances throwing the ball due to their weak running attack.

Meanwhile Russell Wilson will be playing his normal, heady and mistake free game. The Seahawks will not beat themselves in Atlanta and will win this game by something like a 28 to 17 score thus moving on to the NFC championship game against either San Francisco or Green Bay.

And…oh…what the hell…go ahead and bet the grocery money on it!

By Mark Arnold

Monday, January 7, 2013

Seahawks Overcome Shaky Start to Throttle Redskins in First Round Playoff Win….by Mark Arnold

oming up on the end of the first quarter of their first round NFL playoff game against Seattle in Washington DC the Washington Redskins led the Seahawks by a score of 14 to nothing. To that point the ‘Skins had put together two long TD drives while rolling up over 130 yards of offense and possessing the ball for nearly 12 of the first 15 minutes of the game. From that point to the end of the game the Seahawks outscored the Redskins 24 to nothing, piled up nearly 400 yards of offense and controlled the ball for nearly 35 of the remaining 45 minutes of the game while beating the NFC East champs 24-14. Considering how the game started it was a remarkable mid-game turnaround by the Seahawks and demonstrated once again that this is not a team to be taken lightly.

How the Seahawks pulled this win out of what was looking to be potential disaster is no mystery. The Hawks did what they have done all year; they unleashed the “beast” Marshawn Lynch for 130 yards rushing and their marvelous young QB Russell Wilson completed 15 of 26 throws for 187 yards and a score while also rushing for nearly 70 yards of his own. The leaky first quarter defense by the second quarter had found itself and limited the ‘Skins to less than a hundred yards and no points the rest of the way. It was a dominating performance on both sides of the ball and the final score would have been worse had not Lynch lost a fumble on a first and goal play at the one yard line in the third quarter. Also, it didn’t hurt that Robert Griffin III, as I predicted would be the case in yesterday’s blog, was obviously hampered by the injury he sustained several weeks ago to his right knee. He re-injured the knee several times during the game and was finally knocked out of the game for good with 6 minutes left in the fourth quarter.

But such are the fortunes of war in the NFL! Credit the Hawks with a gutsy and resilient performance during which they never gave up and had to overcome much adversity on the road and in front of a hostile crowd. Next up for Seattle in the next round of these playoffs is the NFC top seeded Atlanta Falcons. The Seahawks will once again be playing in a hostile environment next Sunday after a 3000 mile plane flight to Atlanta. Add that to the 6,000 mile roundtrip to DC this week and you have to wonder when all this travel will catch up to this team.

But if I were you I wouldn’t be betting against Russell Wilson and the Seahawks. There just seems to be something irresistible about these guys.

Go Hawks!

By Mark Arnold

Saturday, January 5, 2013

Several Reasons the Seahawks Will Defeat Washington in Their NFC Wildcard Game and One Reason They Might Not…by Mark Arnold

The Seattle Seahawks play the Washington Redskins tomorrow in our nation’s capital in the final game of the opening round of this year’s NFL Playoffs. The game will be special, much more so than a usual “Wildcard” playoff game. The reasons are simple; the Seahawks and Redskins are the two hottest teams in the NFL right now with five and seven game win streaks respectively. In addition the game will mark the first playoff game ever for two of the best young quarterbacks to come into the league in decades; Seattle’s Russell Wilson and Washington’s Robert Griffin III.

That Wilson and Griffin III are two of the best rookie QBs ever is not a casual statement but a matter of hard stats. RG III is the 3^rd ranked quarterback in passer rating in the NFL this season (102.4) and Wilson is the 4^th(100.00). For rookies to be ranked that high in the 32 team, veteran oriented NFL is unheard of. Neither quarterback turns the ball over much with Wilson throwing only 10 interceptions all season and RG III the unbelievably low figure of 5. Both are sure ball handlers who do not fumble the ball and both are very, very fast; able to escape pressure with their feet and keep plays alive. They both are extremely accurate with Wilson completing just over 64 % of his throws and Griffin just over 65%. In addition Wilson tied Peyton Manning’s record for touchdown passes in a season by a rookie with 26 scoring throws while RG III tossed 20. Having the ability to run as well as pass both quarterbacks are literally re-defining how the position is played in the NFL with their use of “read-option” plays that take advantage of defenses collapsing down to stop the run which opens up the edge to the fleet footed QBs.

With these two running their teams it should be a very special game indeed, and though the game will be hard fought and the Redskins will enjoy a distinct home field advantage in front of a raucous crowd, I still think the Seahawks should win. My reasons for this are as follows:

1. Robert Griffin III is not 100 per cent physically. A couple weeks ago RG III injured his knee and he is not completely recovered. He will play this game with a knee brace on his right knee. Based on what I saw of him in the Redskin’s game against Dallas last week, his speed and mobility will be impaired at least a little and this can only help the Seahawk’s cause.

2. The Seahawks defense is the fastest and best defense RG III will have seen all season and with the return of Brandon Browner after a 4 game suspension is now at full strength. Cornerbacks Browner and Richard Sherman are capable of shutting down the Redskins top receivers which could force Griffin into some tough spots with his injured knee.

3. The Seahawks, as the season has gone on, seem to have mastered winning games away from “The Clink” (Century Link Stadium) having won their last two on the road against Buffalo and Chicago. That fact plus their recent superb offensive play and series of “blow-out” wins has their confidence at a sky high level.

4. Russell Wilson is healthy, has gotten better and better and better as the season has progressed and is now playing at a “lights out” level. This does not bode well for the Redskin defense, which at times has struggled this season.

For these reasons I think the Seahawks will win this game by something like a 24 to 17 score. I think they are the better team. That said, if they do lose, it will be because they have reverted back to their road woes from earlier in the season. They are a very young team with many players in their first NFL playoff game ever and in a very hostile environment. If they do lose…that will be why, but I don’t think it will happen.

I have a feeling the Seattle Seahawks will play like champions tomorrow!

Go Hawks!

By Mark Arnold